Budget 2023 Expectations Live Updates: Focus is on overall economy, not elections, says MoS Finance

Economic Survey 2023 live updates: India is expected to grow in a broad range of 6-6.8% in FY24, according to the Economic Survey, which was tabled in the Parliament today. The Survey's baseline forecast for real GDP growth is 6.5 per cent. The survey sees rupee under pressure if CAD widens further. The survey had expected the Indian economy to grow at around 7% in the ongoing financial year 2023-24.

Budget 2023 Expectations Live: India is seen to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the world faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled on Tuesday said. The survey sees GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compared with an estimated 7 per cent expansion this fiscal (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year.

Key highlights

-- Economy to grow 6.5 pc in 2023-24, compared to 7 pc this fiscal and 8.7 pc in 2021-22

-- India to remain the fastest growing major economy in the world

--- GDP in nominal terms to be 11 percent next fiscal

-- Growth driven by private consumption, higher capex, strengthening corporate balance sheet, credit growth to small businesses and return of migrant workers to cities

-- Economy has "recouped" what was lost, "renewed" what had paused, and "reenergised" what had slowed during the pandemic and since the conflict in Europe

-- Real GDP growth to be in the range of 6-6.8 pc next fiscal depending on global economic, political developments

-- RBI projection of 6.8 pc inflation this fiscal outside the upper target limit, not high enough to deter private consumption, also not too low to weaken inducement to invest

--Challenge to rupee depreciation persists with the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the US Fed

--CAD may continue to widen as global commodity prices remain elevated, economic growth momentum stays strong

--If CAD widens further, rupee may come under depreciation pressure

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--Overall external situation to remain manageable

--India has sufficient forex reserves to finance CAD and intervene in forex market to manage rupee volatility

--Elevated downside risks to global economic outlook as inflation persisting in advanced economies and hints of further rate hikes by central banks

--Inflation did not "creep too far above" tolerance range compared to several advanced nations

--The growth in exports has moderated in second half of current fiscal; the surge in growth rate in 2021-22 and first half of current fiscal led to production processes shifting gears from 'mild acceleration' to 'cruise mode'

--Slowing world growth, shrinking global trade led to loss of export stimulus in the second half of current year

--Schemes like PM KISAN, PM Garib Kalyan Yojana significantly contributed to lessening impoverishment

--Credit disbursal, capital investment cycle, expansion of public digital platform and schemes like PLI, National Logistics Policy and PM Gati Shakti to drive economic growth

--Bank credit growth likely to be brisk in FY24 on back of benign inflation, moderate credit cost

--Credit growth to small businesses remarkably high at over 30.5 pc in January-November, 2022

--Housing prices firming up after release of pent-up demand, decline in inventories

--Central govt capex grew 63.4 pc in April-November of current fiscal

--India's economic resilience has helped it withstand the challenge of mitigating external imbalances caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict without losing growth momentum

--Stock market gave positive returns in calendar year 2022 unfazed by FPI withdrawal

--Private consumption, capital formation led economic growth in current fiscal has helped generate employment; urban employment rate declined, while Employee Provident Fund registration rose.

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